🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The team have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."